A major disruption to global energy supplies as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a sharp and sustained rise in oil prices, further fueling inflationary pressures already weighing on consumers and businesses. In more detail: Israel’s attack on Iran on Friday, June 12, 2025, has catapulted their long-running conflict …
Tag: USA
Credit Default Swaps are back for the US
Credit Default Swaps, or CDS, are a type of security that provides protection against default on bonds. Investors are worried that the U.S. government may struggle to pay its debts — and are buying insurance to protect themselves in the event of a default. The cost of insuring exposure to U.S. government debt has been …
Trust Economics: A new Global cycle of terror is underway
The world is on a grim and unpredictable path, with geopolitical upheaval, military conflicts, and economic derailments creating an explosive combination with unpredictable consequences. The Middle East looks like a powder keg ready to explode, as Israel and Iran are one step away from open conflict. Meanwhile, the United States is sinking deeper into a …
Is a Global bond market crash possible?
Liquidations, steepening and sell-off – The new phase of volatility in global bonds has begun. At a time when the positive side of the distribution curve in US stocks was starting to gain interest again (as we were approaching the point of exercise of options dealers’ “short” positions above 6,000 units of the S&P 500), …
The Fed is secretly buying billions of dollars worth of US bonds – What does this mean?
The US Federal Reserve has quietly made a major move — in four days last week, without any publicity, the Fed has withdrawn $43.6 billion in US Treasury bonds. That’s $8.8 billion in long-term 30-year bonds on May 8 alone, plus another $34.8 billion earlier in the week. Not exactly small change. Quietly returning monetary …
US Federal Government Debt: Bond Purchase by Stablecoin Issuers – End of Extortion
The difficult equation of how to keep the dollar as the global reserve currency and at the same time depreciate its value so that the US economy can regain competitiveness and reduce its trade deficits with the rest of the world is up to the Donald Trump administration – and all this against the backdrop …
Nine indicators that indicate a high probability of an economic crisis in the United States
The financialization of the economy in the last quarter of the 20th century created a global “bubble” that is now bursting, starting with the United States. The 2008/2009 financial crisis in the United States and then the debt crisis in the Eurozone, with Greece as the main protagonist, were apparently only the first episodes of …
The appreciating yen and the depreciation of the dollar became a nightmare for Japan
As Donald Trump tries to weaken the dollar to boost the US economy and manufacturing, the Japanese yen is developing safe-haven behavior faster than Tokyo policymakers would like – causing monetary policy turmoil in Asia’s second-largest economy. The extent to which the US president’s trade war is hurting confidence in dollar-denominated assets can be seen …
How will the “punishers” of the bond market be eliminated in 3 moves? The battle for the 10-year
Donald Trump’s retreat, as many mainstream media outlets have pointed out, was not so much driven by the bloodshed on Wall Street as by the reaction of the so-called “punishers” of the bond market (please read also the analysis titled “Tariffs and the $3 trillion held by Asian central banks that make them punishers in …
The devalued dollar will cause prices to soar in all commodities
Should we get used to the idea that financial markets are operating on the back of a weak dollar? This is the biggest reversal of conventional investment wisdom since the end of World War II. The dollar has weathered many crises, of course, but this time the stakes are high! What is particularly noteworthy – …