Crises are never caused by excessive exposure of businesses and individuals to risky assets. Crises can only happen when investors, governments and households accumulate risk in assets where most people believe there is little to no risk – namely government bonds. The recent sell-off and the underlying trend What does the recent sell-off in US …
Category: Economics
The specter of the IMF hangs over Britain and the new debt crisis
The latest turmoil in UK bonds has drawn comparisons to the collapse of Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-budget, but a parallel with the debt crisis of the 1970s may be more apt. About ten days ago the British pound came under sustained downward pressure amid a fall in the value of UK government bonds, which arose …
The huge Public debt and Budget deficit, the trade war and the… problem with the dollar
Investors around the world spent much of 2024 worrying about China’s problems with the housing market and deflation. In 2025, it’s the US’s turn to be the star of the negative scenarios. While Donald Trump’s trade war is making headlines, the rapid decoupling between US net foreign investment and the level of federal debt is …
Trump’s Tariffs – US Economic Suicide – and the Gold Standard
On November 30, 2024, US President-elect Donald Trump threatened the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, as well as other states in the process of joining – with 100% tariffs on their exports to the US if they dare to attempt to replace the …
Trust Economics: The “forecasts” for 2025 – Where should investors focus?
According to Trust Economics, there is a shift to a multipolar world, with prudent fiscal policies and higher interest rates than in the previous decade. The post-Global Financial Crisis environment of tight fiscal policy, zero interest rates and free global trade did not work to the benefit of the average citizen in the West, leading …
The impact of Trump’s duties will be limited – what will happen to the dollar?
Much is said and heard of the Trump economic policy and its impact on both the US and the rest of the world. The dominant media, as they propagated the defeat of the Democratic candidate, so they sow trampophobia – they forget, of course, to say that the economy worldwide was going on in Trump. …
The new era of tariffs and the return of economic nationalism
One of the most surprising developments in the recent American political debate has been the bipartisan consensus against free trade. Just a decade ago, Democrats and Republicans generally championed free trade as part of their support for the neoliberal order—unimpeded movement of goods and capital. But with the 2024 presidential election, both Republican Donald Trump …
All roads lead to inflation – USA & EU on Japan’s path
The recent 50 basis point rise in long-term bond yields began the day after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (base rate 4.75% to 5%). Some of the bond bears argue that the Fed will reignite inflation by cutting interest rates as the economy remains strong. Others fear that fiscal deficits are …
The Global Debt Crisis is just around the corner
The bond market and dollar index have begun to sensitize to the potential implications of another Trump victory. The ten-year yield has increased by 55 bp. after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in mid-September. Americans who have been waiting for rate cuts are once again battling with their mortgage rates starting with the digit …
Money is credit – Currency depreciation is inflation & inflation is silent bankruptcy
The increased prices constitute a “hidden” tax for citizens and a means of state control of economic activity.