The real cause of the US-China trade war is the dollar. Namely, the dollar/renminbi exchange rate. This may seem paradoxical as tariffs have skyrocketed to levels unthinkable in the recent past and the free trade agreement on both sides of the US-China trade war. What needs to be considered is a high-stakes macroeconomic agreement between …
Tag: USA
The bursting of the tech bubble will lead to new investment horizons
For 49% of fund managers, gold is the most crowded investment (i.e. when many investors adopt a particular strategy). This is the first time in 2 years that the Magnificent 7 technology stocks have lagged in the research on investment strategies. However, there is a problem. These fund managers clearly do not know much about …
Tariffs and the $3 trillion held by Asian central banks that make them punishers in the US bond market
Great turmoil, great situation – to use a phrase from former Chinese President Mao Zedong to sum up the trade war declared by President Trump. The dollar extended its biggest plunge in three years on Friday, April 11, after China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, a step up in tensions that …
Trump’s Game Theory Sweeps the International Order
The United States has always been the leader of the free world. Certainly, after the extreme swings of recent weeks, it seems that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has been averted. However, we should not forget that tariff levels are still significantly higher than they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day,” even if they are not …
Tariffs were the Big detonator that burst the Capital markets bubble
Despite the shockwaves caused by Trump’s tariffs, the headlines – as usual – are wrong about the causes of the market volatility and the implications that lie ahead. Understanding how to navigate such market pressures, the historical reality of debt, the role of gold and – most crucially – the significance of a liquidity crisis …
Trump kills the “hard” dollar with tariffs & regains US economic dominance
The roots of the US economic hardship are found in the dollar, the head of the “wise men” of Donald Trump’s government, Stephen Miran, found in a study he wrote in November 2024 (“A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System“) and which is the guide to Trump’s economic policy regarding international trade/tariffs and …
US will issue 100-year T-bonds with gold to become their lifeline
Donald Trump’s economic policy aims to reduce US trade deficits with third countries and relocate the production base to the United States. At the same time, he has to deal with a monstrous public debt that has exceeded 36 trillion dollars and interest payments have exceeded defense spending for the first time! A tool for …
Gold is a formidable monetary weapon – the mysteries of Fort Knox and China
One of the most significant long-term effects of this War in Ukraine, regardless of when a peaceful settlement is reached, will be on gold and the dollar. That is, in the realm of an ongoing currency war. When Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine, it overlooked the fact that its central bank had about …
US debt is unsustainable – at 200% if tax cuts become permanent
The US debt is the enduring nightmare of Donald Trump’s economic policy… His presidency, after all, will be judged by whether he deals with it in a credible way. The independent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the impact of making the tax cuts permanent. It found that US government-issued debt could soar above 200% …
Why will the recession bomb explode in Trump’s hands?
The U.S. stock market’s downward trend appears to be continuing, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 down 4% and 6% respectively since the beginning of the year. And that’s just one of many signs that should prompt any sensible business leader, investor or policymaker to start preparing for an economic slowdown …