Trust Economics, the Εconomic Research and Consulting firm, expects a 58% chance of some form of US-Iran ceasefire by the end of April. But even if a ceasefire is achieved within that timeframe, normalization in the Strait of Hormuz will be much slower. Normality, Trust Economics notes, does not expect to return to “normal operation” …
Category: Market Analyses
Analyses and articles for world financial markets
Central Banks – They are selling US bonds non-stop due to the War in Iran
As the Iran war upends decades of balance sheets, central banks around the world are making a desperate move, dumping U.S. Treasuries at a pace not seen since 2012. Spiking energy prices and suffocating pressure on national currencies are forcing the world’s major economies to liquidate their reserves to avoid a total collapse. It’s a …
Inflationary shock and Interest rates are crashing Debt markets
Government bond prices collapsed globally as investors rushed to bet on higher interest rates after major central banks showed renewed concern that rising oil prices would trigger an inflationary shock. Three weeks after the start of the Iran war, the fallout has put upward pressure on short-term bond yields, defying until recently widespread expectations that …
The Three pillars of the bull market are collapsing
Serious cracks are appearing in the bullish narrative of international stock markets, as – according to an analysis by Trust Economics – the three main pillars that supported the bull market in stocks are weakening. The market picture is changing rapidly and if the deterioration of technical and macroeconomic indicators continues, the next stage for …
What do we expect from the markets?
Increased positions in stocks, maintaining cash at historically low levels, optimism about global growth and corporate profits, but also fears about geopolitical conflicts and valuations of AI technology giants are what Trust Economics sees for 2026. More specifically: Trust Economics’ expectations for global growth are at their highest level since July 2021, while cash levels …
The dollar’s collapse is irreversible
The recent rally in the US dollar is expected to prove short-lived, with the currency stabilizing temporarily before returning to a broader decline later in the year. Markets are still holding on to expectations of interest rate cuts, as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve intensify. The dollar has fallen nearly 11% since …
Why and when do soaring metal prices signal an impending economic collapse?
In 2025, precious metals prices rose sharply, with silver recently surging above $80 an ounce. Such price movements signal much more than a simple market rally. They argue that we are in the early stages of a fiat currency collapse and a systemic crash. The hypothesis is that the sharp rises in precious metals reflect …
Financial crash – Its occurrence is accelerating
The global financial system is approaching an economic collapse, with the United States appearing more vulnerable than ever, Trust Economics reports in an analysis. The United States, with a public debt that has skyrocketed from $250 billion in 1971 to about $38 trillion today, is trapped in a vicious cycle of loss of confidence. From …
EU Dilemma: Use the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) or Liquidate $8 Trillion in US Bonds and Stocks
The impact on the euro from US President Donald Trump’s new trade threats to European governments over Greenland may be limited, as the United States is heavily dependent on Europe for its financing, according to Trust Economics, a consulting and economic research firm. According to Trust Economics, Europe is the largest creditor of the US …
Dollar at lowest level in 20 years as share of global FX reserves
A historic reversal is taking place silently but relentlessly in the global financial system: gold is returning to the throne of reserves, gradually displacing the US dollar, which marks the end of an era of monetary supremacy. According to data published by The Kobeissi Letter, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange …