China’s banking system is the largest in the world, with assets of $70.3 trillion – more than those of the US and the European Union combined. Officially, “non-performing loans” (NPLs) do not exceed 1.52%. However, the reality of the Chinese economy – with house prices having fallen by 23% since 2021, new prices falling for …
Category: Proposed Fiscal Policies
fiscal analysis
How will the “weaponization” of oil used by Iran stop affecting the global economy?
The global economy is now walking a tightrope, poised to sink into a nightmarish stagflationary universe. The “weapon” of oil, which historically has brought down empires, is being put to use again after the outbreak of war in the Strait of Hormuz. There has been no substantive agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as …
Strengthening Economic resilience as a growth lever in the Eurozone
The very recent developments with the ceasefire and the prospect of an agreement between the US and Iran, provided they do not prove fragile, may allow for a more positive reassessment of the prospects, but the main question is the medium-term resilience of the European economy and its potential, given that external crises (such as …
China is gradually abandoning American debt, fearing a collapse of the US economy
For the first time since the end of World War II, the dollar is no longer seen as the sole and undisputed foundation of the international economy. It is not yet a collapse. But it is a gradual erosion of confidence that is spreading from the world’s largest economies to the central banks of emerging …
China’s $1.2 trillion trade surplus & EU’s industrial decline are pushing the euro aside and the yuan is taking its place
Despite the undisputed dominance of the US dollar in the international financial system, developments in recent years have intensified discussions about the de-dollarization of the global economy. And while the dollar still holds the top spot by a wide margin, a new question is gaining increasing importance: can the Chinese yuan overtake the euro and …
The oil shock brings Central Banks into conflict with Governments
Risks to global inflation remain strongly on the upside, as the oil price shock may have longer-lasting and more persistent knock-on effects than initially expected, according to new analysis by Trust Economics. The report’s key finding is that the deflation of inflation in the coming years may prove much slower, particularly in advanced economies and …
USA: The real economy is collapsing, while the historic highs of the stock market show a false picture
President Trump’s panic about the unpleasant situation he faces and the risk of losing his position, comes from the real economy and specifically from the high cost of living with gasoline reaching $4.50 a gallon. The high cost of living for American citizens and the collapse in the polls forced President Trump to cancel Project …
Issuance of Eurobonds worth 4,5 trillion euros is required for Europe’s strategic autonomy
The only obstacle and most important to the issuance of Eurobonds that will finance the EU’s strategic autonomy is Germany. The only major country in the Eurozone with an “excellent” credit rating (AAA) refuses to accept joint borrowing and the issuance of the Eurobond. To achieve the strategic autonomy of the Old Continent requires three …
Iran will finance its reconstruction by collecting part of the oil revenues of the Persian Gulf states
Following the April 8 ceasefire and Donald Trump’s state-sponsored withdrawal from Iran, it appears that the Iranians will be able to permanently impose a “transit fee” on all oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reported that the Islamic Republic intends to impose a $1 per barrel fee, payable in bitcoin, on every cargo …
Debt is exploding – Oil shock is coming
With strategic oil reserves running dry, energy prices threatening an inflationary holocaust, and the bond market sending out danger signals that suggest the end of Western hegemony, collapse is no longer a hypothetical scenario but a significant possibility. In fact, today’s “calm before the financial boom” seems almost surreal when you compare the hard data …