In today’s climate of increasing economic stagnation, politicians and central bankers continue to talk obsessively about “growth.” This narrative, as Trust Economics points out, is not based on real economic data but on a profound misunderstanding of what GDP measures. In fact, the concept of economic growth, as it is currently presented, is a statistical …
Category: Forecasting
Trade war is coming, consumer confidence is leaving – ECB survey
One doesn’t have to be a big economist to conclude that as concerns about geopolitical tensions intensify, consumer confidence is being hit harder. A striking example is what is happening in the US, where the trade war declared by Trump has dragged consumer confidence into tatters. Specifically, based on a new measurement by the University …
Interest rate cuts will send Corporate debt into “junk” bonds
The announced interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will lead to lower yields on junk bonds. In other words, for a company with a very low credit rating, it will lead its debt to the category of “junk” bonds. The question is whether investors will be willing to take on the greater risk of …
Commodity Prices at New Heights for 2021
Given that the Covid-19 pandemic caused the cessation of all kinds of travel, it made sense that demand for oil would drastically reduce during the pandemic (2020). But other commodities have had particularly good returns over the past year. Low interest rates have made priceless metals such as gold valuable and incredibly attractive, passing $2000 …
The Outlook for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies after the end of the Covid-19 Pandemic
The world’s most vulnerable economies, the developing economies, which, before the crisis caused by the Covid-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic, were already vulnerable to external shocks while carrying relatively high budgetary deficits in their state budgets and high public debt, are also the ones that will face the worst problems left behind by tackling this pandemic. by …
Trust Economics Forecast for 2020
The end of 2019 varied the forecasts and found international bond and equity markets strong and higher price levels than at the beginning of 2020. The U.S. stock market index S&P 500 rose > 28,5%. Germany’s DAX stock market index rose > 26,15%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock market index rose > 19,02%. China’s SSBC stock …