All roads lead to inflation – USA & EU on Japan’s path

The recent 50 basis point rise in long-term bond yields began the day after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (base rate 4.75% to 5%). Some of the bond bears argue that the Fed will reignite inflation by cutting interest rates as the economy remains strong. Others fear that fiscal deficits are …

The “Talented” Persistent Inflation that won’t go away

Inflation in the US fell to 2.4% against forecasts for a slowdown to 2.3%. On the other hand, “core” inflation recovered to 3.3%, against forecasts that it would remain unchanged. At the core, services inflation rebounded from 4.3% to 4.4% and accelerated strongly from 0.1% to 0.6% month-on-month (this is the part of the core …

After Inflation, the beginning of Recession or Stagflation?

The inflation phenomenon continues to weaken recently (at 2.5% in June in the Eurozone) although as has been emphasized several times this does not mean that prices are falling. Accuracy remains a “noose” for incomes, a condition that can lead to a parallel weakening of economic activity and investment and ultimately to recession. The odds …

We are nearing the End of the Debt Supercycle

“The 2024 deficit will represent 7% of US gross domestic product while the 2034 deficit will be 6.9% of GDP,” the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) wrote in its latest report. This makes it easy: 7% over a decade roughly doubles the US debt. The CBO now projects this year’s deficit at $2 trillion, a …

EU: 50% of Energy in industry came from fossil fuels by 2022

Electricity at 33.3% and natural gas at 31.2% made up almost two-thirds (64.5%) of the final energy consumption of the EU industrial sector in 2022, according to data from to the public the European statistical agency Eurostat. The industry sector in the EU continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, which accounted for just over …

The next financial crisis in Europe will start from France and Italy

In recent years, a new type of crisis has been dynamically emerging in Europe: a crisis of the European social and political model with profound consequences for fiscal and financial stability. France’s problem The big problem starts with exceeding the budget deficits in France and Italy, over 7% and over 5% for 2024 respectively. These …

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