European states have the largest welfare systems among OECD members and among the most expensive in the world, symbolizing the post-war social democratic social contract. But all of this has begun to be overturned with the pandemic and later the Ukrainian crisis as a starting point. At the same time, Europe’s economic dynamism has faded …
Tag: Eu
European Productivity: Slowdown with wage freezes and layoffs
Productivity in Europe is slowing, putting a damper on real wage increases, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has found. In its “World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2025” chapter, the ILO highlights that labour productivity has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic. Real labour productivity per hour worked in the EU-27 economies fell by 0.1% per …
The falsely called “primary surplus” of the Greek Government’s budget is a statistical trick
In the new budget submitted to Parliament, the deficit increases from 5.7 billion in 2024 to 5.9 billion in 2025. If all public bodies, legal entities, hospitals, social security funds (SSFs) and municipalities are included, some of which obviously have a surplus, then the deficit of the so-called General Government is limited to 1.4 billion …
EU will suffer a loss of 260 billion from Trump tariffs – Markets crash from -15% to -20%
If Donald Trump follows through on his promises and imposes tariffs on European goods imported into the US, then the continent will truly be plunged into a deep recession. Donald Trump’s victory could hurt Europe’s economy, as the proposed 10% US tariffs risk hitting European exports such as cars and chemicals, eroding Europe’s GDP by …
Anger over high cost of living has brought down 70% of governments in developed countries
Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris and the Democrats in the November 5 elections represents part of a broader phenomenon: Most governments in developed economies have been swept away by public anger over rising prices. And this despite the mainstream media and political elites saying that inflation has been… defeated and everything is returning to …
All roads lead to inflation – USA & EU on Japan’s path
The recent 50 basis point rise in long-term bond yields began the day after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (base rate 4.75% to 5%). Some of the bond bears argue that the Fed will reignite inflation by cutting interest rates as the economy remains strong. Others fear that fiscal deficits are …
The “Talented” Persistent Inflation that won’t go away
Inflation in the US fell to 2.4% against forecasts for a slowdown to 2.3%. On the other hand, “core” inflation recovered to 3.3%, against forecasts that it would remain unchanged. At the core, services inflation rebounded from 4.3% to 4.4% and accelerated strongly from 0.1% to 0.6% month-on-month (this is the part of the core …
Why does the imposition of tariffs create few jobs in the countries that impose them?
The US presidential contenders seem to agree on one thing: Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have imposed high tariffs on imported goods made in China and other countries. These kinds of protectionist policies are a departure from the policies of the previous half century that favored “free trade” (less or minimal government intervention in …
After Inflation, the beginning of Recession or Stagflation?
The inflation phenomenon continues to weaken recently (at 2.5% in June in the Eurozone) although as has been emphasized several times this does not mean that prices are falling. Accuracy remains a “noose” for incomes, a condition that can lead to a parallel weakening of economic activity and investment and ultimately to recession. The odds …
Target 2 is a nightmare for France and other EU member countries
In France, President Emmanuel Macron accuses Lepen and the right or other far-right that if he comes to power – which is a given, based on the opinion polls so far it reaches 35% – that chaos will be caused in the French debt. They said the same about Italy but they say nothing about …