A paradoxical phenomenon occurred in the course of US interest rate cuts: Instead of falling, they moved higher in the medium term. The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by half a percentage point in September, raising expectations that other interest rates will soon begin to cut as well. By contrast, two-year and 10-year …
Tag: USA
The impact of Trump’s duties will be limited – what will happen to the dollar?
Much is said and heard of the Trump economic policy and its impact on both the US and the rest of the world. The dominant media, as they propagated the defeat of the Democratic candidate, so they sow trampophobia – they forget, of course, to say that the economy worldwide was going on in Trump. …
The new era of tariffs and the return of economic nationalism
One of the most surprising developments in the recent American political debate has been the bipartisan consensus against free trade. Just a decade ago, Democrats and Republicans generally championed free trade as part of their support for the neoliberal order—unimpeded movement of goods and capital. But with the 2024 presidential election, both Republican Donald Trump …
All roads lead to inflation – USA & EU on Japan’s path
The recent 50 basis point rise in long-term bond yields began the day after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (base rate 4.75% to 5%). Some of the bond bears argue that the Fed will reignite inflation by cutting interest rates as the economy remains strong. Others fear that fiscal deficits are …
Currency War: Why It’s Not Time to Short the Yuan?
As the “Trump trade” returns – again – fueling concerns of new geopolitical turmoil, hedge funds worldwide are scrambling to short the Chinese yuan. They are betting that Trump’s tax and trade policies, if elected, will strengthen the dollar, with China seeking a more competitive exchange rate as domestic growth slows. But if the last …
Ten Signs That the Economy and Markets Are a Huge Mess
The economy is the number one issue, by a wide margin for voters, in the all-important state of Pennsylvania (Rasmussen Reports “More Americans Optimistic About Economy“). Unfortunately for Democrats, most Americans are not happy with how the economy is performing, and it appears that conditions have taken a turn for the worse. The following are …
The “Talented” Persistent Inflation that won’t go away
Inflation in the US fell to 2.4% against forecasts for a slowdown to 2.3%. On the other hand, “core” inflation recovered to 3.3%, against forecasts that it would remain unchanged. At the core, services inflation rebounded from 4.3% to 4.4% and accelerated strongly from 0.1% to 0.6% month-on-month (this is the part of the core …
BRICS: US dollar reserves below 60% for first time in thirty years
This news, combined with the unreal US debt that exceeds 33 trillion, is the most important indicator for geopolitical events and their projection in the immediate future. Note that every day that passes the beast called “US debt” grows by 100 million dollars(!) and most American economists agree that it is now impossible to service. …
Cutting interest rates early will cause hyperinflation
The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%, despite inflation still above its 2% target, apparently politically targeted, has disturbing similarities to the monetary policy mistakes of the late 1970s. Then, under pressure to stimulate economic activity, the Fed eased monetary …
The price of Gold outperformed stocks in annual return (+27.1%)
Spot gold prices closed Friday 9/20 at a new record high of $2,622 an ounce in New York, extending annual gains for the precious metal to 27.1%. It beat the weak performance of the US S&P 500 index, including dividend reinvestment. Gold is on track for its best performance since 2010, even outpacing 2020’s 25.1% …