The war in Ukraine after the Russian invasion has been going on for more than 900 days, and since then, China and Russia have strengthened their economic and defense ties. Under the radar of the West, however, economic relations could expand even further in the future – with the help of an old (as old …
Tag: economy
The problem of shadow lenders is getting bigger, possibly leading to a new financial crisis
The occasion for this specific analysis is the recent statement about the main areas of concern of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) that was issued by the head of the global supervisor Klaas Knot. In particular, this statement focused on vulnerabilities in non-banking financial intermediation (NBFI), the so-called “shadow lenders”. More specifically, “Vulnerabilities in non-banking …
China is already 33% larger than the US in terms of GDP (including shadow economy), while India is also threatening
China’s GDP is already significantly larger than the US economy, contrary to official figures given by governments or organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which do not include important parameters such as the “black economy” or the measurement of GDP in purchasing power parity terms. Translating the following into …
“Monetary policy” – the tool for elites to win by controlling the Economy
In the cases over the decades where Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been applied, not a few have been spent reacting to the relevant policies of governments and central banks, focusing on the mix of options and the efficiency they will bring to the economy. There is also a minority, however, who have targeted monetary …
After Inflation, the beginning of Recession or Stagflation?
The inflation phenomenon continues to weaken recently (at 2.5% in June in the Eurozone) although as has been emphasized several times this does not mean that prices are falling. Accuracy remains a “noose” for incomes, a condition that can lead to a parallel weakening of economic activity and investment and ultimately to recession. The odds …
Why is the Russian Economy growing continuously during the War in Ukraine?
The Russian economy during the years of the war in Ukraine “runs like a bullet”, according to the findings of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD. The World Economic Outlook of the IMF points out that Russia is expected to grow in 2024 faster than all advanced economies, in particular the Russian economy …
We are nearing the End of the Debt Supercycle
“The 2024 deficit will represent 7% of US gross domestic product while the 2034 deficit will be 6.9% of GDP,” the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) wrote in its latest report. This makes it easy: 7% over a decade roughly doubles the US debt. The CBO now projects this year’s deficit at $2 trillion, a …
Gold is the only lifeline from inflation – Inflation is implicit government bankruptcy
The money supply (the M2 index) in the US is rising again and persistent inflation is no longer a surprise. Price inflation occurs when the quantity of currency increases significantly above private sector demand. For investors, the worst decision in this currency disaster environment is to invest in government bonds and hold cash. The destruction …
The consumer, the average citizen, continues to suffer…
In April, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers drew laughs from investors when he said the Fed’s next move might be tightening, not easing. In other words, Mr. Summers is predicting another rate hike, which could cause the markets to… explode. And the truth is that few traders are still laughing. Of course, the likelihood …
Slowly and steadily cracks are appearing in the Financial System
The FED raised interest rates above 5%, yet the US economy is not broken. The bond yield curve has been inverted since 2022 and has remained inverted ever since. The lags looked short, with the US economy only briefly causing concern in 2023 when there was a consensus among market participants that a recession would …