Crises are never caused by excessive exposure of businesses and individuals to risky assets. Crises can only happen when investors, governments and households accumulate risk in assets where most people believe there is little to no risk – namely government bonds. The recent sell-off and the underlying trend What does the recent sell-off in US …
Category: Market Analyses
Analyses and articles for world financial markets
The specter of the IMF hangs over Britain and the new debt crisis
The latest turmoil in UK bonds has drawn comparisons to the collapse of Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-budget, but a parallel with the debt crisis of the 1970s may be more apt. About ten days ago the British pound came under sustained downward pressure amid a fall in the value of UK government bonds, which arose …
Inflationary money: foundation of uncontrolled state growth – destruction of economic & social freedoms
The rulers and the ruled in the Western world have long succumbed to a particularly demonic temptation: the replacement of commodity (or precious metal) money with unbacked, state-issued money, known as fiat money. In a sense, they have been seduced by the alluring prospect of securing the power to increase the quantity of money arbitrarily …
How is the financial engineering tool -synthetic risk transfer (SRT) disintegrating the Global Financial System?
New products reminiscent of the subprime era and which may create negative vicious cycles and crises are being launched by global bankers, reaping temporary benefits but at the same time questioning the stability of the international financial system. SRT – synthetic risk transfer is one of the hottest financial engineering tools today. The SRT tool …
Bitcoin surpasses $100,000
Bitcoin not only broke but also significantly surpassed the long-awaited milestone of $100,000 in the early hours of Thursday, December 5, reaching $103,844.05, now recording a jump of more than 140% in 2024 and 48% since the US election. The jump was triggered by Donald Trump’s announcement that he plans to appoint cryptocurrency “friend” Paul …
Tariffs, the destructive currency war between China and the US and the “strong dollar”
Beijing has a powerful tool to respond to President-elect Donald Trump’s threatened new tariffs on Chinese goods: it could launch a currency war, a step that carries dire risks for both China and the United States — and certainly for the global economy. Depreciating the value of China’s currency, the yuan, against the dollar would …
EU will suffer a loss of 260 billion from Trump tariffs – Markets crash from -15% to -20%
If Donald Trump follows through on his promises and imposes tariffs on European goods imported into the US, then the continent will truly be plunged into a deep recession. Donald Trump’s victory could hurt Europe’s economy, as the proposed 10% US tariffs risk hitting European exports such as cars and chemicals, eroding Europe’s GDP by …
The Global Debt Crisis is just around the corner
The bond market and dollar index have begun to sensitize to the potential implications of another Trump victory. The ten-year yield has increased by 55 bp. after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in mid-September. Americans who have been waiting for rate cuts are once again battling with their mortgage rates starting with the digit …
Bets against the euro-dollar parity are increasing dangerously
Anticipation of the risk of the euro slipping against the dollar is rising in financial markets after last week’s rate cut and the scenario that a Donald Trump presidency could spark a global trade war. Days after Trump suggested that US tariffs could target Europe as well as China and other countries, European Central Bank …
Currency War: Why It’s Not Time to Short the Yuan?
As the “Trump trade” returns – again – fueling concerns of new geopolitical turmoil, hedge funds worldwide are scrambling to short the Chinese yuan. They are betting that Trump’s tax and trade policies, if elected, will strengthen the dollar, with China seeking a more competitive exchange rate as domestic growth slows. But if the last …