Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement sparked sharp volatility in U.S. government debt and equity markets, with the S&P 500 index falling as much as 15% and borrowing costs rising. Markets have stabilized after Trump suspended most of the retaliatory tariffs, but concerns remain that the president’s policy changes could dampen foreign investor enthusiasm …
Category: Economics
Nine indicators that indicate a high probability of an economic crisis in the United States
The financialization of the economy in the last quarter of the 20th century created a global “bubble” that is now bursting, starting with the United States. The 2008/2009 financial crisis in the United States and then the debt crisis in the Eurozone, with Greece as the main protagonist, were apparently only the first episodes of …
The Global economy reaches the “limits of growth” closing a 200-year Global Wealth cycle – The new Historic Wealth cycle
The global economy is at a major crossroads, and we must prepare for rapid economic change. The world is moving from having enough goods and services for everyone to not having enough to meet needs. The dynamics of the economy are very different when there are not enough goods and services for everyone. The sought-after …
The trade war is becoming monetary – Dilemma whether to devalue their currency
Uncertainty over US policy has led to a flight from the dollar and US bonds, with the dollar index down more than 9% so far this year. The dollar’s decline has led to other currencies appreciating against it, notably safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the euro. Currency depreciation is …
Tariffs and the $3 trillion held by Asian central banks that make them punishers in the US bond market
Great turmoil, great situation – to use a phrase from former Chinese President Mao Zedong to sum up the trade war declared by President Trump. The dollar extended its biggest plunge in three years on Friday, April 11, after China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, a step up in tensions that …
Trump’s Game Theory Sweeps the International Order
The United States has always been the leader of the free world. Certainly, after the extreme swings of recent weeks, it seems that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has been averted. However, we should not forget that tariff levels are still significantly higher than they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day,” even if they are not …
Tariffs were the Big detonator that burst the Capital markets bubble
Despite the shockwaves caused by Trump’s tariffs, the headlines – as usual – are wrong about the causes of the market volatility and the implications that lie ahead. Understanding how to navigate such market pressures, the historical reality of debt, the role of gold and – most crucially – the significance of a liquidity crisis …
Trump tariffs will cause an unprecedented global crisis
A major slowdown in global growth is expected to be caused by US President Trump’s impending “tariff wall”. The recession will start with a dollar liquidity crisis in China and end with a crash in the US, as funding pressures circulate through the global banking system. Because China runs a large trade surplus with the …
The transformation of the EU economy into a war economy will operate its defence industry as the EU’s economic lifeline
The big question for Europe’s economic development is to minimize or even eliminate the distance that separates it from the digital and technological level at which the USA and China are located. It is characteristic that in most technological conferences around the world, it is heard that “in a world that innovates, Europe legislates”. And …
Debt restructuring using tariffs is a risk for the dollar
The successful Plaza Accord of the 1985s is now apparently serving as inspiration for the administration of US President Donald Trump, as it seeks ways to weaken the dollar with the ultimate goal of improving America’s trade balance. While at the same time not wanting to weaken the dollar’s power as a reserve currency. Donald …