Gold has proven to be an effective store of value over time

The recent correction of more than 20% in gold and silver prices from their January 2026 highs has led many to conclude that the bull run for precious metals is over. However, according to Trust Economics, the current correction may be more of an opportunity than a sign of a change in the long-term trend. As Trust Economics points out in a report, the distinction between short-term traders and long-term investors is crucial. The former focus on daily price fluctuations, while the latter monitor broader variables such as fiscal cycles, debt accumulation and currency depreciation. Gold has proven itself over time as an effective store of value. Since 2000, it has significantly outperformed many traditional investment vehicles, while outperforming major currencies internationally.

Historical Patterns in Crisis Times

Trust Economics argues that geopolitical crises often follow a recurring pattern:

• energy prices rise,
• inflationary expectations strengthen, and
• government bond yields move up

In this macroeconomic environment, investors tend to initially turn to bonds, considering that positive nominal returns are a safer option than gold, which does not pay interest. However, historical experience shows that when real returns remain negative due to inflation, gold quickly regains investment interest. The consulting firm recalls that a similar picture was observed during

• the 1973 oil embargo,
• the 1979 Iranian Revolution,
• the 1991 Gulf War,
• the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and
• the Russia-Ukraine war crisis in 2022.

A common feature of all these periods was that gold initially recorded a decline, before following a strong upward trend towards new historical highs.

Technical signals remain positive

Particular emphasis is also placed on the technical picture of the market. Both gold and silver have fallen below the 200-day moving average, a development that has historically been associated with significant upward movements thereafter. In the case of silver, corresponding signals were recorded in 2020, 2022 and 2025, before strong upward movements followed. A similar picture appears in gold. The previous times when its price fell below this technical indicator were accompanied by a significant increase in the following months.  

The burden of public debt and the markets of Central Banks

Trust Economics believes that current conditions are even more favorable for precious metals than in the 1970s. The US public debt has now skyrocketed to levels that are multiples of those during the first oil shock, while the cost of servicing it is constantly increasing. According to Trust Economics, the need to maintain loose monetary conditions and the long-term weakening of currencies are supporting gold. At the same time, central banks around the world continue to increase their gold reserves. This trend has strengthened significantly after 2022, as many countries seek to further diversify their foreign exchange reserves and reduce their dependence on the dollar. As the Economic and Business Research firm points out, steady demand from central banks creates a strong structural support base for the gold market, even in periods of intense volatility. In this light, the recent correction in precious metal prices is not considered a sign of exhaustion of the upward trend, but probably an intermediate phase within a broader upward cycle that is still in progress. At this time, the price for gold and silver (New York) is at 4,357 and 68 dollars per ounce, respectively.