The world is on a grim and unpredictable path, with geopolitical upheaval, military conflicts, and economic derailments creating an explosive combination with unpredictable consequences. The Middle East looks like a powder keg ready to explode, as Israel and Iran are one step away from open conflict. Meanwhile, the United States is sinking deeper into a …
Tag: Trust Economics
Is a Global bond market crash possible?
Liquidations, steepening and sell-off – The new phase of volatility in global bonds has begun. At a time when the positive side of the distribution curve in US stocks was starting to gain interest again (as we were approaching the point of exercise of options dealers’ “short” positions above 6,000 units of the S&P 500), …
The trade war is becoming monetary – Dilemma whether to devalue their currency
Uncertainty over US policy has led to a flight from the dollar and US bonds, with the dollar index down more than 9% so far this year. The dollar’s decline has led to other currencies appreciating against it, notably safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the euro. Currency depreciation is …
Trump’s Game Theory Sweeps the International Order
The United States has always been the leader of the free world. Certainly, after the extreme swings of recent weeks, it seems that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has been averted. However, we should not forget that tariff levels are still significantly higher than they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day,” even if they are not …
Trust Economics: The “forecasts” for 2025 – Where should investors focus?
According to Trust Economics, there is a shift to a multipolar world, with prudent fiscal policies and higher interest rates than in the previous decade. The post-Global Financial Crisis environment of tight fiscal policy, zero interest rates and free global trade did not work to the benefit of the average citizen in the West, leading …
The Reasons That Lead the Global Economy to “Difficult Paths”
The world economy is likely to be headed for a new recession and overall a time of difficulties. Things are not so good. This has to do with the combination of a number of structural trends currently permeating the global economy. 1. Inflation is here to stay There is a more structural dimension to inflation, …
The EU puts an end to Virtual Companies
It is well known the practice of many taxpayers, natural and legal persons, to establish virtual companies (i.e. companies without physical presence and real economic activity) in countries with preferential tax status such as Cyprus, Bulgaria, Ireland, etc., in order to avoid the paying taxes in the country where the income actually arises. The European …
High probability the Price of Brent to Remain over $115 by the End of 2022
The recent EU deal on a Russian oil embargo has put upward pressure and volatility again, with Brent prices hovering well above USD120 last week. Trust Economics (https://trusteconomics.eu) estimates that developments in the oil market are expected to hit growth. The geopolitical risk and the EU agreement will keep oil prices high during the summer …
Properties: Reasons to Boost Their Prices
The constant upward trend in property prices is an international phenomenon. In the Eurozone, the growth rate of house prices for Q2 2021 reached 6.8% on an annualized basis. Respectively, in OECD countries, nominal house prices increased by 12.3% on average, on an annual basis. The countries with the highest house prices were Turkey (30.2%), …