President Donald Trump’s trade war with retaliatory tariffs is accelerating Beijing’s trade and investment push toward developing countries, known as the Global South, according to Trust Economics, potentially creating a new trade order dominated by Chinese companies. China’s exports of goods have doubled over the past decade to countries mainly in Southeast Asia, Latin America …
Tag: Trust Economics
GDP growth is an illusion, governments are spending irresponsibly
The numbers may look positive, but behind the statistics, Western economies are already in recession, warns Trust Economics in its analysis, emphasizing that “growth” is nothing more than a fiscal illusion, based on a surge in government deficits and not on a real increase in economic activity in the private sector. Subtract government deficits from …
Why has gold already surpassed the dollar in importance as a reserve currency for central banks?
The increasing frenzy in gold purchases by central banks suggests that the effects of Donald Trump’s fiscal policy are only just beginning to be felt. As the world’s leading monetary authorities accumulate gold at historically high prices, the real goal of the above move is to reduce exposure to the dollar. This dynamic belies US …
Summer of Terror in 2025, Lehman Brothers Memories Awaken – The Catalysts That Will Cause a Tsunami
The specter of a new “summer of terror” is looming over global markets, with Trust Economics warning that 2025 could bring back nightmare memories, both from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the political turmoil of the Tsipras era in Greece. US policy, the risk of tariffs, soaring volatility and distortions in the …
Trump: Attack to “Fortress Europe” through the Bond market with Capital Controls and the abolition of Dollar Swaps
The “monster” of the bond market has awakened after the turmoil of the trade war, this time on the occasion of the detection of fiscal derailment – not only in Washington but also in the major financial capitals. The indications from the long-term bond auctions smell… blood! Foreign investors are selling off American debt after …
Trust Economics: A new Global cycle of terror is underway
The world is on a grim and unpredictable path, with geopolitical upheaval, military conflicts, and economic derailments creating an explosive combination with unpredictable consequences. The Middle East looks like a powder keg ready to explode, as Israel and Iran are one step away from open conflict. Meanwhile, the United States is sinking deeper into a …
Is a Global bond market crash possible?
Liquidations, steepening and sell-off – The new phase of volatility in global bonds has begun. At a time when the positive side of the distribution curve in US stocks was starting to gain interest again (as we were approaching the point of exercise of options dealers’ “short” positions above 6,000 units of the S&P 500), …
The trade war is becoming monetary – Dilemma whether to devalue their currency
Uncertainty over US policy has led to a flight from the dollar and US bonds, with the dollar index down more than 9% so far this year. The dollar’s decline has led to other currencies appreciating against it, notably safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the euro. Currency depreciation is …
Trump’s Game Theory Sweeps the International Order
The United States has always been the leader of the free world. Certainly, after the extreme swings of recent weeks, it seems that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has been averted. However, we should not forget that tariff levels are still significantly higher than they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day,” even if they are not …
Trust Economics: The “forecasts” for 2025 – Where should investors focus?
According to Trust Economics, there is a shift to a multipolar world, with prudent fiscal policies and higher interest rates than in the previous decade. The post-Global Financial Crisis environment of tight fiscal policy, zero interest rates and free global trade did not work to the benefit of the average citizen in the West, leading …