If Donald Trump follows through on his promises and imposes tariffs on European goods imported into the US, then the continent will truly be plunged into a deep recession. Donald Trump’s victory could hurt Europe’s economy, as the proposed 10% US tariffs risk hitting European exports such as cars and chemicals, eroding Europe’s GDP by …
Tag: crash
Global markets: After the plunge – The role of the carry trade, shorts and the hit to hedge funds
The numbers flashing on the stock screens on Monday were shocking. Whether Monday’s wild swings mark the final blowout of a global sell-off that began to develop last week or mark the beginning of a protracted downturn is impossible to know. Trust Economics is predicting a major crash next fall. The Nikkei on Monday posted …
“Black Swans” warn us of a strong Crash in the Stock markets in mid-autumn 2024
The evidence may point to a significant degree of parallelism between today and the conditions that caused the catastrophic crash of the Great Depression in 1929, and while trying to predict the exact timing of a recession is a challenging but also a relatively fool’s errand, taking steps to protect it’s a wise move. Will …
At extreme levels of market valuations (bubbles), everything portends a crash
Lately there has been growing concern over the valuation of the US stock market, warning that it is currently overvalued. This analysis delves into the reasons behind this rating and explores the various factors that contribute to the perceived overvaluation. By trying to understand the basics of what “overvalued” means, we shed light on the …
How far or close are we from a painful crash?
The economic cycle we are experiencing is very different from most economic cycles we have experienced to date in our lifetimes. This means that we are in an income-led expansion, but also in an income-led consumption expansion, meaning that citizens in the US are enjoying wage growth of 6% per year, with personal consumption spending …
Stocks in an extreme bubble, everything reminds of the crash of 1929 and 2008
In the American stock market, there are risks of creating a bubble and extreme valuations, at unprecedented levels, due to the over-optimism of the market participants. The barometer index of the US stock market S&P 500 has broken a series of records this year, regaining strength in recent sessions after a weak April. However, the …
Why is the FED secretly preparing for another banking crash?
It recently became known that the American authorities are preparing a proposal that will push American banks to use the “loophole” of the Federal Reserve Bank of the USA (Federal Reserve, FED) in the event of a new crisis. For whom does the bell toll? It is clear that the FED wants to take its …