Trust Economics, the Εconomic Research and Consulting firm, expects a 58% chance of some form of US-Iran ceasefire by the end of April. But even if a ceasefire is achieved within that timeframe, normalization in the Strait of Hormuz will be much slower. Normality, Trust Economics notes, does not expect to return to “normal operation” …
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Central Banks – They are selling US bonds non-stop due to the War in Iran
As the Iran war upends decades of balance sheets, central banks around the world are making a desperate move, dumping U.S. Treasuries at a pace not seen since 2012. Spiking energy prices and suffocating pressure on national currencies are forcing the world’s major economies to liquidate their reserves to avoid a total collapse. It’s a …
Americans face explosive price increases, an energy shock, and continued pressure on incomes
The US-Israeli choice to strike Iran leaves Americans facing explosive price increases, an energy shock and persistent pressure on incomes, in a development that threatens to turn into a widespread economic crisis. The US economy is heading towards a full-scale financial turmoil, as the latest data shows that inflation not only persists, but is accelerating …
Innovation, Green Technologies & resource transfer to high-tech production make China a Global leader in the Economy
The global economy is currently witnessing one of the most fundamental structural shifts in recent decades, taking place at the heart of the Asian market. As the world’s second-largest economy redefines its strategy, the dynamics of international trade and industrial production are changing. At the recent China Development Forum in Beijing, the message was clear: …
The Economic Inequality (poverty) gap is Greater in the US than in Europe
It takes the average worker in the United States almost twice as long to gain the same purchasing power as someone working in Germany, France or the United Kingdom, according to a new method of measuring poverty developed by Olivier Sterk, an associate professor of economics at the University of Oxford, which takes into account …
Pressure on costs and freight rates brings shocks to shipping from the war in the Middle East
The crisis in the Middle East is not only affecting tourism and air transport, but is also causing strong shocks in international shipping, with the additional cost of fuel reaching 5 billion dollars. At the same time, fuel shortages are beginning to be recorded at large refueling stations, while shortages are also observed on the …
Inflationary shock and Interest rates are crashing Debt markets
Government bond prices collapsed globally as investors rushed to bet on higher interest rates after major central banks showed renewed concern that rising oil prices would trigger an inflationary shock. Three weeks after the start of the Iran war, the fallout has put upward pressure on short-term bond yields, defying until recently widespread expectations that …
The War in Iran and How It Enters as Inflation in Countries’ Economies
The war in Iran with the launch of the military operation “Epic Fury” by the United States forces and the simultaneous attack “Roaring Lion” by Israel on February 28, 2026, marked the beginning of a period of turmoil on the global energy map. What began as a precision military operation aimed at neutralizing Tehran’s nuclear …
Iran will abolish the Petrodollar and replace it with the Petroyuan
The dollar’s hegemony, which for decades was protected by the dominance of the “petrodollar,” is now facing an existential threat that cannot be questioned. Indeed, the escalating conflict with Iran is not just a regional dispute, but the catalyst that triggers the dissolution of the historic 1974 agreement. With the cracks in the Middle Eastern …
The turmoil in private credit markets is reminiscent of the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis
The cracks in this dark corner of the $1.8 trillion financial markets have clear similarities to the subprime crisis. Liquidity is scarce or even disappearing. The lack of transparency around how assets are valued seems to be fueling investor concerns and leading to funds failing to return capital to investors. This in turn has raised …