2025 did not go down in history as a year of impressive upswings for the dry bulk freight market. There were no sharp spikes in freight rates or waves of excess demand that would have changed the correlations. Nevertheless, the market showed remarkable resilience. The high level of fleet employment, the coincidence of periods of increased demand with limited ship availability and small but critical delays in ports acted as a support. Thus, freight rates were maintained at satisfactory levels in almost all categories.
The trend in the freight market
The big protagonists of the year were
- The Capesize (with a carrying capacity of approximately 150,000 dwt). Their daily rates increased impressively, from 7–10 thousand dollars at the beginning of the year to approximately 45 thousand dollars in December.
- Kamsarmax (80,000–82,000 dwt). The mid-sizes moved more modestly, but with greater stability: Kamsarmax (80,000–82,000 dwt) stabilized at 15–18 thousand dollars/day,
- Ultramax (60,000–65,000 dwt) peaked at around 18 thousand dollars and maintained above-average returns, despite the fourth-quarter correction, while
- Handysize (10,000–40,000 dwt) closed the year close to 16 thousand dollars/day.
On the cargo side, the picture was more stabilizing than explosive. Bulk seaborne trade increased marginally to 7.2 billion tonnes in 2025, up 1.4% year-on-year. Coal and iron ore continued to dominate, together accounting for over 50% of global seaborne trade.
The trend of concentration and China
One of the key structural features of the market remains the strong concentration on the demand side. China absorbs almost 42% of the world’s seaborne dry bulk volumes, leaving countries such as India and Japan far behind. On the supply side, Australia maintains its lead as a country of origin, with China, Indonesia and Brazil following.
At the same time, fleet growth remained controlled. The active fleet amounted to 14,573 vessels and 1.064 billion DWT, with the order book to fleet ratio standing at 11% — a level still considered manageable by historical standards. The picture, however, is not uniform: new orders are concentrated mainly in the Ultramax and Kamsarmax categories.
The most worrying aspect is the age composition of the fleet, with around 28% of ships now 16 years old or older, up from a year ago. This raises the possibility of a sharp reduction in supply as charterers begin to set informal limits related to efficiency, environmental footprint and risk tolerance.
Coal transport
In this context, coal transport is of particular strategic importance. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal exports are expected to fall by around 4.8% in 2025 and continue to decline until the end of the decade, with Indonesia’s exports recording the largest decline. These are mainly short-haul but high-frequency trades — a “job base” that traditionally keeps fleet utilization high, especially when demand for iron ore declines.
At the same time, competition between different ship classes is intensifying. It is no coincidence that recently we have seen the entry of Panamax vessels (70,000–75,000 dwt) into coal cargoes traditionally served by Capesize, further straining the balance.
What’s coming in 2026?
The outlook for 2026 is more complex. The global economy continues to grow at around 3.1%, but commodities are showing clear signs of fatigue. Coal demand is slowing, iron ore is flat — or at best, rising slightly — and China’s economic volatility remains high.
At the same time, demand for ships is growing at a rate of 1–2%, while fleet supply is moving faster, with deliveries approaching 41 million DWT and scrapping limited. In this environment, the performance of the dry bulk freight market will be judged less by absolute volumes and more by the quality of tonne-miles, scrapping discipline, and the speed at which the aging fleet is retired from the market.
