The pursuit of prediction verification is like a game, because rare and catastrophic extreme events are unpredictable. Therefore, it is better to approach accepting in advance the reality of market risks and to prepare for their possible appearance. 1. Expansion of the conflict in the Middle East After the Hamas attack on Israel on October …
The FED serves Wall Street (and capital gains taxes), not the Real Economy
Nobody likes tough macro events, especially during the holiday season, but some things need to be said, according to Trust Economics. As you know, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has promised that 2024 will be the year of interest rate cuts. In this regard, it should be pointed out that Powell is neither a …
The digital dollar and the collapse in the “fake” wealth of the markets
Why did the decoupling of production from consumption through the operation of financial markets and the leverage of values become the greatest historical economic experiment? The financial “bubble” that began in the late 1980s is expected to burst with a wave sweeping away the forms of economies we know. “Bad currency” had long driven out …
Good Luck Argentina: A Promising Liberal Experiment Begins
Argentina is perhaps the only example of a country that, while it was among the 10 richest at the beginning of the 20th century, was driven into poverty by the populist state diet economic model of the Peronists. A country rich in natural resources followed a failed development model based on industrialization behind a wall …
The FED Won’t Help ‘Bidenomics’ – Interest Rates and the 2024 Elections
In recent years, Jerome Powell stood firm on the monetary principles he espoused: The Fed was prepared to do whatever it took until inflation returned to its 2% target. On Tuesday, December 12, 2023, Powell showed signs of a change in attitude. The reasons are obvious and it is certainly beyond any economic logic. At …
Russia has abandoned the dollar and is increasing its foreign exchange reserves in yuan
In a state of war economy, Russia has survived and is victorious in a currency war that was declared against it by the West. Urals oil exports in local currencies, mainly with China and India, as well as the failure of sanctions on Russian energy goods boosted the country’s foreign exchange reserves and prevented the …
USA: Black hole in the US economy – Impossible to finance Ukraine
The “black hole” in the American defense economy risks swallowing the economy of the superpower, and the role of the “global policeman” is called into question… So far, the White House has justified its unwavering support for Ukraine by citing principles such as defending democracy and freedom — both in Ukraine and in the West. …
When are Real values produced vs the “Bubbles” of Casino Capitalism
In a complex juncture where few wise people “read” the real facts of economies, it is time to face structural questions: Many people believe – and on the surface they are not wrong – that a general increase in stock prices is an important factor in the strength of an economy. However, this is an …
FED: Vicious economic cycle with interest rate hikes leads to a crisis-crash like 1930s
The Fed’s “medicine” of lowering interest rates appears to be killing the sick American economy. The credit crunch due to unprecedented tight monetary policy has led to a surge in bankruptcy filings, portending a vicious recession and soaring unemployment. The flow of money supply (the dollars the Fed prints) fell again in October, remaining deep …
Why does GDP growth equal population growth and productivity growth?
Even before the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world had entered a strange phase, where the demographic pyramid after many generations was being reversed, as the world is getting older. The effects of this aging were first seen in Japan (the first post-development economy) and then in the E.U. and China which are the …