The FED raised interest rates above 5%, yet the US economy is not broken. The bond yield curve has been inverted since 2022 and has remained inverted ever since. The lags looked short, with the US economy only briefly causing concern in 2023 when there was a consensus among market participants that a recession would …
Tag: USA
How far or close are we from a painful crash?
The economic cycle we are experiencing is very different from most economic cycles we have experienced to date in our lifetimes. This means that we are in an income-led expansion, but also in an income-led consumption expansion, meaning that citizens in the US are enjoying wage growth of 6% per year, with personal consumption spending …
Stocks in an extreme bubble, everything reminds of the crash of 1929 and 2008
In the American stock market, there are risks of creating a bubble and extreme valuations, at unprecedented levels, due to the over-optimism of the market participants. The barometer index of the US stock market S&P 500 has broken a series of records this year, regaining strength in recent sessions after a weak April. However, the …
Wall Street: The debt bubble of 1.7 trillion dollars in the private debt shadow market
Private credit has grown exponentially in recent years as banks have reduced their balance sheets due to tighter regulations. The private debt bubble harkens back to the days of crazy investment risk-taking before the 2008 financial crisis. Right now we have a boom in the $1.7 trillion private debt market, where private equity funds lend …
The BRICS prepare a Central Bank and buy gold to support the common currency
China, backed by Russia and South Africa, is planning the final assault on the still-strong dollar by introducing a new currency, to be issued by a BRICS central bank that will combine the strengths of the respective currencies of the five largest economies join the group. At the same time, the replacement of the dollar …
The FED is on alert: In case a banking domino of bankruptcies begins
It seems that in the US the time has come for a wave of consolidation in the banking industry. A key program that kept US banks afloat ended last month, and everyone knew what that would mean. By the last Friday of April, the FDIC had taken Republic Bank’s assets and had already arranged to …
White House pushes FED for rate cuts and blows up 2% inflation target – Trump’s plan
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said in a politically charged statement on Friday (5/3) that the US central bank needs independence from the White House in order to return inflation to its 2% target. The election cycle threatens the independence of monetary policy as pressure mounts for interest rate cuts to ease lending …
Excessive Public Debt is killing the Middle Income class – the “lifeblood” of Consumption
Every promise by politicians to increase public spending – and especially those concerning social transfers – resonates positively with voters. These promises may win elections, but what voters themselves should be asking is: Who pays the bill? The common narrative in the US that the debt is unsustainable which has a life of 40 years …
IMF: The US, a huge threat to the Global Economy – Bubbles that will burst the Markets
US budget deficits should not continue to expand in the coming decade, as they are reaching an unsustainable level that could even lead to a collapse of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund says. In particular, the IMF warned the US that its huge budget deficits have fueled inflation and pose “significant risks” to …
Gold: Russia’s Strategic Monetary Superweapon
In history, gold and silver accompanied the rule of different empires. They made possible the financing of conquests, but also the very rule of the conqueror in the vassal regions of the planet. If even today, gold coins, even legal tender, no longer accompany states’ ambitions for geopolitical sovereignty, we see that central banks’ gold …