The bond market and dollar index have begun to sensitize to the potential implications of another Trump victory. The ten-year yield has increased by 55 bp. after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in mid-September. Americans who have been waiting for rate cuts are once again battling with their mortgage rates starting with the digit …
Tag: government bonds
USA: At 1 trillion interest on debt for the first time in history, explosive budget deficit
2024 was the year in which the huge US budget deficit was supposed to have gradually leveled off after two years of crisis. The US was supposed to end the spending spree. All this, on a theoretical level. As of August, the US deficit has exceeded that of 2023. What does the evidence say?
Slowly and steadily cracks are appearing in the Financial System
The FED raised interest rates above 5%, yet the US economy is not broken. The bond yield curve has been inverted since 2022 and has remained inverted ever since. The lags looked short, with the US economy only briefly causing concern in 2023 when there was a consensus among market participants that a recession would …
Greece Returns Rapidly to the Era of Financial Support Packages
Greece, a member-country of the Eurozone/EU with 388 billion euros in public debt and a deindustrialized economy, is in danger of paying dearly for the EU sanctions imposed on Russia. The debt of the General Government of Greece, despite being sustainable in the medium term, despite being supported by the ECB and despite the fact …
The Gap Between How the Capital Markets Perceives Risk in Government Bonds Compared to the Verdict of The Credit Rating Houses
Markets always send the signal of risk or euphoria first, either by launching or shrinking bond spreads respectively and long before rating agencies start one by one and slowly downgrade the credit rating of the country which is under consideration. It is common for Big-Four Rating Companies – Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, DBRS …
The Threat of SARS-ConV-2 and some immediate Economic Consequences from it
On the morning of Friday, February 28, 2020, there were 2848 deaths and 83386 cases of SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) in 44 countries around the globe (Source: WHO, www.who.int ) due to the disease it causes called COVID-19. These numbers are increasing at an impressive speed, while the vaccine that will protect the earth’s population from the …
The low interest rates, their consequences & the returns of assets as an investment selection criterion
In EU member countries (e.g. Denmark, Germany) commercial banks are proceeding to mortgage loans with a negative lending rate. In other words, these banks grant discounted housing loans to borrowers and since the repayment of the mortgage loan not only will not be paid interest, but the borrower will repay capital in total less than …