The US presidential contenders seem to agree on one thing: Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have imposed high tariffs on imported goods made in China and other countries. These kinds of protectionist policies are a departure from the policies of the previous half century that favored “free trade” (less or minimal government intervention in …
Category: Proposed Fiscal Policies
fiscal analysis
ECB: Inverted Bond yield curve warns of coming pain and 2008-style recession
The possibility of a major financial crisis, similar to the one that occurred when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008, is increasing day by day. An important indicator in this regard is the inverted yield curve of US bonds, which is historically associated with recessions. As an example, it is worth noting that from the …
Trump Presidency 2.0: The Dollar will be sacrificed to deal with the huge Public Debt
The US must abandon its “mammoth deficits” if it is to keep US debt levels manageable for decades to come. The over-indebted US economy can no longer bear, in the context of geopolitical realignments, to support the “excessive monetary privilege” of the dollar, and in order for the new presidency of Donald Trump not to …
After Inflation, the beginning of Recession or Stagflation?
The inflation phenomenon continues to weaken recently (at 2.5% in June in the Eurozone) although as has been emphasized several times this does not mean that prices are falling. Accuracy remains a “noose” for incomes, a condition that can lead to a parallel weakening of economic activity and investment and ultimately to recession. The odds …
BRICS build wheat market and threaten the West
The global South’s drive to de-dollarize global trade doesn’t just involve the oil or energy goods sector – after Saudi Arabia’s commitment to trade energy goods in US currency (the well-known petrodollar) ends. As these states are world leaders in the commodity market, they are attempting to expand the economic fields in which transactions will …
Target 2 is a nightmare for France and other EU member countries
In France, President Emmanuel Macron accuses Lepen and the right or other far-right that if he comes to power – which is a given, based on the opinion polls so far it reaches 35% – that chaos will be caused in the French debt. They said the same about Italy but they say nothing about …
China: The Strategic Moves, Trade and Sanctions It Prepares for Currency War Against the Dollar
Financial security has become an integral part of China’s national security strategy since the Asian financial crisis of 1997 – when the so-called Asian Tigers collapsed. Rising geopolitical tensions with the US and the West in general since 2018 and Western economic sanctions against Russia have further prompted Chinese policymakers to strengthen the economy’s financial …
The FED is sacrificing inflation to keep the bond market from collapsing
The US Federal Reserve is in a race to prevent an imminent collapse in the US government bond market. High US debt yields are artificially kept at these levels as the Fed maintains demand by increasing the money supply in the economy – that is, by printing dollars and trying to control the bond yield …
The European economy will die a slow death day by day – Unless something changes immediately
Europe’s economic underperformance has long worried politicians. But the problem has climbed to the top of the debate agenda now that the development gap with the US has widened, following the twin shocks of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Last month, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Europe faces a “mortal” threat …
How do Governments cause Inflation and pretend they are fighting the high Cost of living?
In the present analysis, we will show the way in which governments cause inflation and pretend to fight for accuracy. The new announcement of a 2.8% increase in the core personal spending index in the US, the Fed’s preferred measure, gives us the trigger to proceed with the downward analysis. This is the key indicator …