Commodities are moving upwards. Both supply chain fragmentation problems (globally) and climate change problems (e.g., prolonged droughts in Central and South America and Africa) have pushed commodity prices soaring. The increased prices observed in futures in basic commodities in the summer editions, have not yet passed to the consumer markets. These price increases will come …
Category: Financial Markets
Stocks forecasting for the rest of the 2021
The US S&P index has very quickly covered the lost ground lost by its fall caused by the implementation of measures to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. It is constantly growing, breaking one record after another. The Fed expects inflation to be transient and monetary tapering to be implemented smoothly, causing mild corrections in the …
The Complex Securitization
Before analyzing the complex securitization, we must present what securitization is. Securitization follows a specific process where a financial institution (originator) designs a financial product by choosing to group different types of financial items from its balance sheet into a group. The financial institution then sells this group of financial assets to investors through the …
New World Record in IPO and What is Required by Companies for a Successful IPO
Given the dynamics of Q12021 IPOs that continue unabated and Q22021, creating the highest number of IPOs and corresponding capital, we conclude that global growth is ongoing. More specifically: Q12021, public registrations dominated through SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) with 1070 public registrations and $222bn raised capital. Q22021, traditional public subscriptions dominated, due to high …
In 4 Months Low the Price of Gold
On 9/08/2021 gold fell to 1684.37, recording a fall of 4.4% (the lowest price since 31/03/2021). The reasons that led investors to sell gold en masse have to do with their expectations regarding the future economic environment. More specifically: 1. Increased number of jobs in the US warn investors that the dollar is about to …
The Unchanged Interest Rates, The Dollar Price Slip and the Postponement of Tapering
The Fed, knowing the expectations of the markets, decided last Wednesday 28/7/2021 to maintain unchanged interest rates, while continuing at a steady pace its monetary policy through the purchase of government bonds and securitized mortgage bonds with the always existing monthly rate. The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, accepted the fact that the American …
The Economic Conclusions of Tomorrow from the Pandemic of Today
World economic activity has reached its nadir due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Both governments and central banks responded with unprecedented fiscal liquidity measures (the former) and increased expansionary monetary policy combined with near-zero interest rates and mass securities markets (the latter). Combined with the easing measures of commercial banks taken by supervisors, they provided ample …
When Does Tappering Start in World Bond Markets from Central Banks
Given that in the developed countries of the world, the EU, the US, Japan, the UK anti-Pandemic Covid-19 vaccination program is progressing rapidly, the eye of governments and officials of these Central Banks is on when to start “tapering” in bond markets. The “tapering” technique is forced in its application and should be done to …
What Possibility there is a Tapening in Fixed Income Markets to Stop The Recovery in The US
Data on the US economy last week showed that an annual growth rate (2021) is expected at 6.8% of GDP. At the same time, business profits for Q12021 are expected to increase by close to 36%. Continued price growth in stocks and commodities continues. This idyllically beautiful and optimistic image can be destroyed by the …
Inflation, Rising Interest Rates or Both Together?
At the hearing before Congress on Thursday, March 25, 2021, Fed Governor Jerome Powell was adamant that any resurgence of inflation in the US would be temporary (inflation above 2% for 2021), transitional and would in no way affect the Fed’s target of average inflation of 2%. But rising Federal Reserve bond yields point to …