Greece’s National Debt for 2025 “climbed” to the astronomical amount of 427.1 billion euros

This number is staggering, considering that Greece was led to official bankruptcy and the memoranda in 2010 with a debt of 299 billion euros – and even with the country’s real GDP at the time being 35 billion euros higher than today! In just one year, the state debt increased by 4.5 billion euros, as in 2024 it was at 422.6 billion euros. This increase is recorded despite:

• The government’s narratives about fiscal surpluses.
• The revenues from the ongoing “sell-off” of public property.

The discrepancy between the debt managed by the ODDICH (ΟΔΔΗΧ) and the total state debt is mainly due to the frozen interest of the EFSF, which has reached 96 billion euros (for more information please read the full study in Public Debt Bulletins & Annual Public Debt Report 2025) The payment of these interests was postponed in 2018 to after 2032. This is the reason why the Greek government is proceeding with regular intervals of early repayment of specific loan installments, so that in 2032, the remaining amount of the above-mentioned interests can be refinanced over a longer time horizon and at a more attractive lower financing interest rate. This postponement, in economic reality, is not a solution but a peculiar arrangement that resembles a “technical bankruptcy”. The most worrying aspect of the report concerns the explosive rise in repos (repurchase agreements). The state’s internal borrowing from the reserves of insurance funds and public organizations has soared:

• From 56.6 billion euros in 2024
• To 62.3 billion euros in 2025

Because this borrowing is classified as “intra-government”, it is not counted in the official Public Debt to GDP ratio. This is a purely accounting trick used to keep the ratios artificially low and present a fictitious image of prosperity to the markets. In reality, however, this money constitutes the “piggy bank” of pensions and social benefits, and the state owes it in full. The Greek economy continues to walk a tightrope. The embellished showcase of accounting indicators cannot hide the fact that the country is today more indebted than ever, relying on internal borrowing and the transfer of obligations to the future. In conclusion, Greece is “tied tight” until 2115 AD with the chains of debt, both its population and the state.

The Doomed Greek Economy

With the Recovery & Resilience Fund (RRF) ending its cycle in 2026, inflation gnawing on purchasing power, and the current production model running out of steam on the edge of a “coffee economy,” the next day seems highly uncertain. Based on available statistics, the main drivers of growth in recent years have been consumption and investment, which came mainly from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF). This programme ends in 2026, with a limited impact in 2027. In the absence of continued EU investment funding, the government’s commitment to creating a fiscal surplus each year and persistently high inflation will cause the main drivers of growth to weaken. There are therefore no positive growth prospects for 2027 and the years to come. Of course, Tourism will continue to play an important role, but its net contribution to growth remains limited, as a significant part of the products and services associated with it are imported, thus reducing its growth footprint. Imports remain a significant negative factor, and no public policy aimed at increasing net exports has been announced, which will make a positive contribution to economic growth. Growth in terms of GDP is not a fair and balanced growth. A high level of indirect taxation (VAT), combined with high inflation and stagnant wages, reduces households’ disposable income and purchasing power. The cost of basic goods and services, including energy, telephony and other essential services, has been shown to be higher in Greece than in other EU member states. This limits the purchasing power of citizens and, as this phenomenon continues, Greece faces a constant trend of declining real purchasing power.

The New Productive Model – The Solution

Such a productive model should focus on

1. In energy production (solar and wind),
2. In manufacturing with a higher technological content, as well as
3. Promote and provide tax incentives for high tech start-ups, particularly in the field of software development.

These activities can increase productivity in both industry and agriculture, meeting domestic and international demand. Such a strategy would reduce import dependency and reverse the continued widening of the trade and current account deficits.

Greece’s key economic strategy for the next decade

Less dependence on tourism and a structural transformation of the economy aimed at significantly reducing import dependency, as described above.