Uncertainty over US policy has led to a flight from the dollar and US bonds, with the dollar index down more than 9% so far this year. The dollar’s decline has led to other currencies appreciating against it, notably safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the euro. Currency depreciation is …
China: Asks the US for a “soft” dollar exchange rate in return
The real cause of the US-China trade war is the dollar. Namely, the dollar/renminbi exchange rate. This may seem paradoxical as tariffs have skyrocketed to levels unthinkable in the recent past and the free trade agreement on both sides of the US-China trade war. What needs to be considered is a high-stakes macroeconomic agreement between …
The bursting of the tech bubble will lead to new investment horizons
For 49% of fund managers, gold is the most crowded investment (i.e. when many investors adopt a particular strategy). This is the first time in 2 years that the Magnificent 7 technology stocks have lagged in the research on investment strategies. However, there is a problem. These fund managers clearly do not know much about …
Tariffs and the $3 trillion held by Asian central banks that make them punishers in the US bond market
Great turmoil, great situation – to use a phrase from former Chinese President Mao Zedong to sum up the trade war declared by President Trump. The dollar extended its biggest plunge in three years on Friday, April 11, after China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, a step up in tensions that …
Trump’s Game Theory Sweeps the International Order
The United States has always been the leader of the free world. Certainly, after the extreme swings of recent weeks, it seems that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has been averted. However, we should not forget that tariff levels are still significantly higher than they were before Trump’s “Liberation Day,” even if they are not …
Will Trump’s trade war boost dedollarization? – Gold rally
The dollar has long enjoyed its status as the world’s top reserve currency, although President Donald Trump’s recent trade policies have sparked debate about its future dominance. At the same time, gold’s rally is shaping the emerging monetary order that will emerge after the great instability. The strength of the dollar and its associated role …
Trade war is coming, consumer confidence is leaving – ECB survey
One doesn’t have to be a big economist to conclude that as concerns about geopolitical tensions intensify, consumer confidence is being hit harder. A striking example is what is happening in the US, where the trade war declared by Trump has dragged consumer confidence into tatters. Specifically, based on a new measurement by the University …
Tariffs were the Big detonator that burst the Capital markets bubble
Despite the shockwaves caused by Trump’s tariffs, the headlines – as usual – are wrong about the causes of the market volatility and the implications that lie ahead. Understanding how to navigate such market pressures, the historical reality of debt, the role of gold and – most crucially – the significance of a liquidity crisis …
Great Britain faces a serious debt crisis due to tariffs and deficits
Donald Trump’s trade war and the country’s dire fiscal position risk plunging Britain into a Greek-style debt crisis, investors have warned. Weaker economic output combined with the Treasury’s negative fiscal data are exposing Britain to a “negative growth spiral”. Britain’s £2.7 trillion debt, which exceeds the size of the economy, leaves it vulnerable to the …
Trump kills the “hard” dollar with tariffs & regains US economic dominance
The roots of the US economic hardship are found in the dollar, the head of the “wise men” of Donald Trump’s government, Stephen Miran, found in a study he wrote in November 2024 (“A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System“) and which is the guide to Trump’s economic policy regarding international trade/tariffs and …