Much is said and heard of the Trump economic policy and its impact on both the US and the rest of the world. The dominant media, as they propagated the defeat of the Democratic candidate, so they sow trampophobia – they forget, of course, to say that the economy worldwide was going on in Trump. …
Category: PUBLICATIONS
The new era of tariffs and the return of economic nationalism
One of the most surprising developments in the recent American political debate has been the bipartisan consensus against free trade. Just a decade ago, Democrats and Republicans generally championed free trade as part of their support for the neoliberal order—unimpeded movement of goods and capital. But with the 2024 presidential election, both Republican Donald Trump …
All roads lead to inflation – USA & EU on Japan’s path
The recent 50 basis point rise in long-term bond yields began the day after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (base rate 4.75% to 5%). Some of the bond bears argue that the Fed will reignite inflation by cutting interest rates as the economy remains strong. Others fear that fiscal deficits are …
The Global Debt Crisis is just around the corner
The bond market and dollar index have begun to sensitize to the potential implications of another Trump victory. The ten-year yield has increased by 55 bp. after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in mid-September. Americans who have been waiting for rate cuts are once again battling with their mortgage rates starting with the digit …
Money is credit – Currency depreciation is inflation & inflation is silent bankruptcy
The increased prices constitute a “hidden” tax for citizens and a means of state control of economic activity.
Bets against the euro-dollar parity are increasing dangerously
Anticipation of the risk of the euro slipping against the dollar is rising in financial markets after last week’s rate cut and the scenario that a Donald Trump presidency could spark a global trade war. Days after Trump suggested that US tariffs could target Europe as well as China and other countries, European Central Bank …
Currency War: Why It’s Not Time to Short the Yuan?
As the “Trump trade” returns – again – fueling concerns of new geopolitical turmoil, hedge funds worldwide are scrambling to short the Chinese yuan. They are betting that Trump’s tax and trade policies, if elected, will strengthen the dollar, with China seeking a more competitive exchange rate as domestic growth slows. But if the last …
Ten Signs That the Economy and Markets Are a Huge Mess
The economy is the number one issue, by a wide margin for voters, in the all-important state of Pennsylvania (Rasmussen Reports “More Americans Optimistic About Economy“). Unfortunately for Democrats, most Americans are not happy with how the economy is performing, and it appears that conditions have taken a turn for the worse. The following are …
How is one global reserve currency replaced by another?
Over the past century, monetary systems have changed about every 30-40 years on average, according to the evidence of monetary history. Today, the existing monetary system is over 50 years old, so its transformation is long overdue. There are persistent attempts by different states to dethrone the US dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency …
The “Talented” Persistent Inflation that won’t go away
Inflation in the US fell to 2.4% against forecasts for a slowdown to 2.3%. On the other hand, “core” inflation recovered to 3.3%, against forecasts that it would remain unchanged. At the core, services inflation rebounded from 4.3% to 4.4% and accelerated strongly from 0.1% to 0.6% month-on-month (this is the part of the core …