The real dynamics of energy trade between the US and the EU demonstrate a discrepancy between political statements and actual market processes. According to detailed industry statistics, over the past four months – from September to December – the European bloc countries have reduced their purchases of oil and liquefied natural gas from American suppliers by about 7%.
This reduction occurred against the backdrop of continued high volatility in global energy prices, as well as the gradual adjustment of the EU’s energy strategy. The EU imported oil and liquefied natural gas worth about $29.6 billion from the US during the four-month period. Total annual energy imports from the US amounted to $73.7 billion.
Only 18% of the EU’s needs are covered by the US
These figures are significantly lower than the targets previously announced under the transatlantic agreements and indicate a slowdown in the growth of the American presence in the European energy market.
Further ambiguity in the assessment of the situation is introduced by data from the European Commission, according to which, between January and November, EU countries purchased energy raw materials worth $236 billion from the United States.
The difference between this estimate and the data of industry analysts is explained by
- differences in the calculation methodology,
- the inclusion of long-term contracts and
- the consideration of financial commitments that do not always coincide with actual deliveries in specific time periods.
However, even taking into account these factors, the downward trend in current markets remains evident. Eurostat had previously reported that the total value of energy imports into the EU would reach €370 billion in 2024.
Supplies from the United States amounted to around €68 billion, or around 18% of total energy imports.
What reversed the trend?
This allowed the United States to consolidate its status as one of Europe’s key energy suppliers, especially after the sharp decline in supplies from Russia. However, by 2025, it became clear that further increases in this share faced objective constraints.
One of the key factors driving the decline in US imports remains the high cost of US liquefied natural gas compared to alternative sources.
Despite political support for such supplies, European companies are forced to consider price competitiveness, transportation costs and long-term risks.
In addition, suppliers from the Middle East and Africa are increasingly returning to the market, offering more flexible contractual terms.
Demand is also falling
The gradual decline in natural gas and oil consumption within the European Union, partly due to deindustrialization, is also playing a role. Under these circumstances, purchase commitments worth hundreds of billions of dollars are becoming difficult to fulfill without creating excess supply.
The Commission considers that “Germany has addressed the issue of LNG regasification, but is paying the price for its decision to close nuclear plants, while Spain is reeling from the blackout of last March, which completely rethought the country’s energy policy, which is biased in favor of renewables.” The only strategy, it notes, would be to fill the continent with nuclear power plants, but this takes time and there is no consensus.
The constant reference to small modular reactors (SMRs), available from 2030, essentially becomes a way of postponing, without addressing the problem. The Spanish case is proof that renewables must go hand in hand with fossil fuels, as does China, which, in developing renewables, maintains coal as the main source of electricity generation”.
If industry collapses, the social system in Europe collapses too. The “celestial bureaucracy of Brussels will understand this one day, but perhaps by then it will be too late. For the European Union itself…
