{"id":3625,"date":"2026-10-08T18:15:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T18:15:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trusteconomics.eu\/?p=3625"},"modified":"2026-10-08T18:15:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T18:15:25","slug":"the-collapse-of-the-us-bond-market-and-the-dangerous-circularly-funded-ai-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trusteconomics.eu\/index.php\/2026\/10\/08\/the-collapse-of-the-us-bond-market-and-the-dangerous-circularly-funded-ai-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"The collapse of the US bond market and the dangerous, circularly funded AI bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n\r\nThe mathematically inevitable collapse of the US bond market and the dangerous, circularly funded AI bubble are pushing the global economic edifice to its limits.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nAs US debt surpasses $40 trillion and the Fed definitively loses control over interest rates, the dollar is heading toward its ultimate devaluation.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nTrust Economics warns that there is now only one way out of the crisis: a forced return to gold. To understand the financial headlines of the fourth quarter of 2026, we must first look back.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nOnce we grasp the past, we realize\u2014with mathematical certainty\u2014that our problems do not lie in the future. They are here, right now.\r\n\r\n <div class=\"wp-block-image\">\r\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-30564 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\r\n<\/div> \r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The 1970s<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nThe 1970s was the decade when Nixon severed the link between the dollar and gold, putting an end to the American founders&#8217; vision of a stable and sound monetary system.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nBacked solely by the &#8220;full faith and credit&#8221; of the US government, the dollar began a slow but steady decline\u2014dying a death of a thousand cuts: ceaseless borrowing and uncontrolled spending, with little regard for the long-term economic consequences that inevitably follow a debt-fueled binge paid for with dollars created literally out of thin air.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nTo the &#8220;experts&#8221; of the time, the national debt\u2014standing at $238 billion in 1971\u2014was not a cause for particular concern.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nAfter all, any future debts could easily be repaid in that dawn of a generational illusion\u2014what Hemingway described as &#8220;temporary prosperity&#8221;: a state of excess where the rampant printing of money is passed off as prudent and sensible economic policy. An era devoid of foresight (or restraint)\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn short, no one in the 1970s was considering what the situation would look like in 2026, when that same national debt would have skyrocketed from a few hundred billion to more than $40 trillion.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nInstead, American leadership after 1971\u2014whether Republican or Democratic\u2014focused on the next election cycle rather than the purchasing power of the next generation.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nAs the issuer of the global reserve currency, Washington enjoyed what the French Finance Minister had described in 1965 as the &#8220;exorbitant privilege&#8221; of simply exporting its reserve currency\u2014and its inflation\u2014to the rest of the world.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThis may have been inherently unfair to the rest of the planet, yet, as the then-US Treasury Secretary John Connally famously put it: &#8220;It\u2019s our currency, but it\u2019s your problem.&#8221;\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Buying time with unconventional policies<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nTo ensure this &#8220;problem&#8221; remained under control, the US effectively compelled OPEC to price its oil in dollars, while simultaneously ensuring that oil producers invested a significant portion of their revenues in US Treasury bonds (USTs).\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThus, oil became a crucial &#8220;sponge&#8221; that absorbed some of our reckless, inflationary spending.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nAnd, in case a rise in the price of gold threatened to expose the fact that the dollar was backed by nothing tangible, the Americans also took steps in the mid-1970s to establish a price-setting mechanism on the COMEX; this allowed them to legally influence the paper price of a metal that was far more precious and reliable.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nYes. That was the 1970s. What could possibly go wrong? Well&#8230; just about everything. Some fifty years later, we now see a world gradually moving away from the dollar\u2014a petrodollar system showing cracks\u2014amidst flying missiles, with the dollar emerging not merely as a global problem but as a problem for America itself.\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Back to the Future<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nLet us fast-forward to 2026. The aforementioned &#8220;exorbitant privilege&#8221; and &#8220;temporary prosperity&#8221; have now evolved into what Hemingway foresaw as the final stage of this fantasy of borrowing and reckless spending: &#8220;ultimate ruin through currency debasement and war.&#8221;\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nNaturally, there are proponents of American exceptionalism who would take issue with terms like &#8220;ultimate ruin,&#8221; dismissing them as the rhetoric of &#8220;gold bugs&#8221; merely trying to promote their own investment positions.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nAfter all, there are so many things supposedly capable of saving us. Look at the S&amp;P 500, hovering at all-time highs. Look at technology. Look at AI. Look at the &#8220;milkshake&#8221; theory and the immortal dollar. Look at all the brilliant PhDs at the Fed and its magical task forces. Look at stablecoins. Okay. Let&#8217;s take a look.\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Big AI Bet<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nAs for the S&amp;P 500, it is indeed approaching all-time highs. However, 440 of its 500 constituent companies are trading more than 20% below their 52-week highs.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nInstead of a truly broad stock market, we have a concentrated minority of tech monopolies propping up the rest of the crumbling edifice with makeshift technological &#8220;patches&#8221; and memes claiming, &#8220;this time is different, thanks to AI.&#8221;\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThe dominant tech giants\u2014Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft\u2014are participating in the largest circular financing and risk-concentration bet the US stock market has ever seen.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThese hyperscalers derive 70% of their AI-related revenue from just two players: Anthropic and OpenAI\u2014two unprofitable companies whose costs exceed their revenues by billions.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThese two glaring examples of concentration risk are losing money on a historic scale. Even AI search results themselves confirm the same thing\u2026\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>From concentration risk to circular funding<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nAnd if you are wondering how Anthropic and OpenAI are funded, the answer is not that they rely primarily on major venture capital players.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn reality, the bulk of their capital\u2014over $700 billion in AI spending alone projected for 2026\u2014comes from the very companies (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, SoftBank, and Nvidia) to which they sell their software, without any real competitive advantage or &#8220;moat&#8221; against rivals.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nEven more concerning is that these same tech hyperscalers\u2014which are keeping the two AI ships afloat\u2014are themselves burning through cash at an unprecedented rate to build data centers; the associated costs, along with energy supply issues, are severely straining their cash flows.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nGiven this circular, funded, highly concentrated, and massive volume of capital expenditure\u2014as well as the entire chain of interdependencies\u2014AI is literally evolving into something &#8220;too big to fail.&#8221; By now, the very survival of the economy and the stock market seems to hinge on a single bet regarding AI\u2014a bet whose profitable future is far from certain\u2014unless the government imposes a protective duopoly regime to keep China out of OpenAI and Anthropic\u2019s backyard.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn such a scenario, however, the US would no longer be able to source rare earth elements from Asia\u2026\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>NVDA to the rescue?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nBut surely Nvidia\u2019s GPU sales will save the day, right? Its results are indeed impressive, and it just announced a 110% revenue increase. Impressive.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHowever, if you take a closer look at Nvidia\u2019s 10-Q filing\u2014and the accompanying notes\u2014you will also see that 70% of its receivables come from just five companies: the ones mentioned above.\r\n\r\n \r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n \t<li>Do you see the cyclical concentration risk?<\/li>\r\n \r\n \t<li>Do you see the massive bet the S&amp;P 500 has placed on the entire economy\u2014should this AI gamble, priced as if everything were perfect, fail to play out as predicted?<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n \r\n\r\nFor now, the big AI bet remains undecided. Yet, the memory of tech bubbles\u2014which shift from overbought to oversold conditions\u2014remains all too fresh in my mind from my days trading the dot-com market\u2026\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The bond market\u2019s verdict<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nHowever, if we shift our focus from a loss-making AI bubble\u2014fueled by a feedback loop of capital and characterized by grotesque concentration and immense uncertainty\u2014to the fragmented US Treasury market, the anxiety is distinctly lower&#8230; particularly for a country running annual fiscal deficits of $2 trillion.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn reality, when it comes to bonds, the verdict is already clear. We have reached the peak of the madness in the government bond market.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nWith the yield on the 10-year US Treasury (10Y UST) surpassing 5% and public debt standing at $40 trillion, a &#8220;death sentence&#8221; looms over the dollar&#8217;s purchasing power\u2014with a Treasury Secretary powerless to grant a stay of execution. With Scott Bessent having recently added David Zervos and Judy Shelton to his &#8220;dream team,&#8221; the stage is now set for significant changes\u2014as well as desperate measures\u2014lying ahead.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nAt the same time, Washington figures such as Kevin Warsh avoid giving direct answers regarding how the U.S. government can sustain its interest-servicing costs, or how yields reached 5.25%\u2014up from 4.4% in June, when the current administration took office.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nYields rise as inflation rises. Consequently, the conflict involving Iran\u2014which has driven the price of Brent crude to painfully high levels\u2014is the most common explanation for how yields, which stood at 3.9% before the conflict, have now surpassed the critical 5% threshold.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHowever, the real issue\u2014and, in the author&#8217;s view, the &#8220;smoking gun&#8221; behind the rise in these yields\u2014lies in the issuance of U.S. debt at extreme levels, coinciding with a slump in demand to equally extreme lows. As an increasing number of countries\u2014focused on deleveraging\u2014offload US debt to support their currencies or purchase oil amid surging prices, US Treasury yields continue to rise; they will climb even further once the US acknowledges it is already in recession.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nGlobal confidence in the US Treasury bond\u2014an instrument that is over-issued, unreliable, debt-laden, and weaponized\u2014has eroded at an accelerating, exponential rate.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThe premium\u2014or interest rate\u2014demanded by the market to lend money to the US will continue to rise in tandem with expanding fiscal deficits.\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This is not the bond market we once knew<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nThe once-sacrosanct Treasury market is now mathematically broken\u2014a sign that Washington has effectively lost its composure.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nBetween September 2024 and January 2026, having failed to tame inflation through the aggressive rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, the Fed shifted to a decidedly looser monetary policy, implementing rate cuts totaling 175 basis points.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn a normal bond market, such rate cuts would be expected to drive bond yields lower. Instead, yields rose across the entire maturity spectrum of the yield curve.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nSuch yield metrics might seem dull to those unfamiliar with bond market jargon who spend their time endlessly doom-scrolling on their iPhones.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nYet, they confirm something critically important: the Fed has lost control over interest rates\u2014and, by extension, the cost of servicing the national debt, the bill for which has now become impossible to pay.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nAnd matters are only getting worse. Since 2000, we have witnessed 13 market corrections. In the first 12 of these 13 corrections, the dollar\u2014based on the DXY index\u2014consistently strengthened by at least 8%.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHowever, during the 13th correction last April\u2014when stocks fell by 18%\u2014the dollar declined instead of strengthening, even as bond yields were surging. This is not normal&#8230;\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn this new &#8220;abnormal&#8221; environment, US Treasuries (USTs) fall when stocks fall, while the over-issued\u2014and consequently undervalued\u2014US dollar fails to strengthen even amidst rising yields.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThere is no longer a safe haven in the so-called &#8220;risk-free return&#8221; of a US security. On the contrary, when its yield is measured against actual inflation rather than the Fed&#8217;s calculated figure, it amounts to nothing more than &#8220;risk without return.&#8221;\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn short, we are operating under a different regime in the bond market. The old rules, correlations, and familiar &#8220;tricks&#8221; no longer apply. Our bond market is clearly broken. The only way to reduce yields to a sustainable and manageable level is either:\r\n\r\n \r\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n \t<li>to print money without limit, or<\/li>\r\n \r\n \t<li>to carry out a massive debt restructuring.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n \r\n\r\nBoth options entail the further destruction of the dollar&#8217;s value and, consequently, powerful tailwinds for gold.\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A credit default masquerading as a &#8220;restructuring&#8221;?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nAs for the &#8220;restructuring,&#8221; the recent addition of Shelton and Dervos is revealing. Shelton, of course, recognizes that US Treasuries have fallen from their pedestal.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nShe knows that a long-term, gold-backed bond possesses greater credibility than a dollar-based security, for the simple reason that the debasement of the dollar is now obvious\u2014and embarrassing\u2014to everyone, including those countries that no longer appear at US government bond auctions.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nBut even a 50-year, gold-backed Treasury bond won&#8217;t save the Treasury market. It is too little, too late. The Fed and the Treasury Department will likely try to buy time by implementing a serious yield curve control (YCC) program\u2014issuing more short-term debt in a desperate &#8220;Operation Twist 2.0&#8221; style attempt to compress long-term yields.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nBut that doesn&#8217;t seem to be working very well, does it? The next desperate move could very well be a cleverly designed &#8220;restructuring&#8221; of government obligations\u2014which, in essence, would be nothing more than a disguised debt default.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThat is to say, at some point in the future\u2014and in the highly convenient name of &#8220;national security,&#8221; with the blame naturally placed on a malicious foreign actor or a &#8220;black swan&#8221; event\u2014Washington could simply announce an extension of bond maturities and the imposition of a 1% cap on their coupons.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThis would, of course, devastate bondholders\u2014both foreign and domestic\u2014as well as pension funds, insurance companies, money market funds, and the average citizen.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIt would also trigger a massive drop in bond prices\u2014and likely social unrest\u2014along with a loss of global confidence in U.S. securities. But then again, desperate times call for desperate measures. Under such a &#8220;restructuring,&#8221; Washington would be forced to halt the issuance of new debt and bring its budget back into balance. It would also mean a sharp drop in the USD\u2014exactly what Washington needs to inflate away its debt and gain some ground on its trade deficit.\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>All roads lead to gold<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nSo, whether we simply click the mouse a few more times to create trillions and bail out\u2014or self-finance\u2014the bond market, or restructure US Treasuries by capping their coupons, the net result is, one way or another, a weakened dollar and, consequently, an explosive rise in the price of gold over the coming years\u2014at least for those capable of looking that far ahead.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThis further explains why central banks\u2014which are currently accumulating gold at a record pace\u2014now hold more gold than US Treasuries.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThey see where the dollar is heading\u2014and just how desperate the situation is\u2014and, consequently, they see where gold is heading, too.\r\n\r\n \r\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The impending collapse of the US credit and stock markets is only a matter of time<\/strong><\/p>\r\n \r\n\r\nArtificial intelligence stocks are caught in a vicious cycle of overinvestment\u2014devoid of profits\u2014and constantly shifting narratives; this situation will likely necessitate government regulation to rein in the sector and shield hyperscalers and overvalued AI service providers from a new 2008-style catastrophe, as the impending collapse of the US credit and stock markets is only a matter of time.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nBased on the telling\u2014yet largely ignored\u2014signals emitted by the anemic, concentrated, and highly leveraged stock market; and based on our openly broken, unsustainable bond market\u2014not to mention the &#8220;private credit&#8221; time bomb, which is desperate for a liquidity miracle or a policy-driven default that would further devalue the Greenback\u2014the picture is clear.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nWarsh, Bessent, and Shelton are not going to save this credit market. Neither Santa Claus nor any other miraculous ploy will pull it off. It is simply too late.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn fact, the image that comes to mind takes us straight back to the 1970s and those Saturday morning cartoons we watched as children\u2014back when Nixon and his successors were setting in motion the disaster we face today, decades before the dot-com frenzy&#8230;\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nUS credit, stocks, monetary fantasies, and the ignored realities of Main Street have already gone over the cliff&#8217;s edge. We now stand suspended over a fall that is no longer theoretical; it lies directly beneath us.\r\n\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The mathematically inevitable collapse of the US bond market and the dangerous, circularly funded AI bubble are pushing the global economic edifice to its limits. As US debt surpasses $40 trillion and the Fed definitively loses control over interest rates, the dollar is heading toward its ultimate devaluation. Trust Economics warns that there is now &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,391],"tags":[276,541,138,526],"class_list":["post-3625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-financial-markets","category-market-analyses","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-bonds","tag-markets"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The mathematically inevitable collapse of the US bond market and the dangerous, circularly funded AI bubble are pushing the global economic edifice to its limits. As US debt surpasses $40 trillion and the Fed definitively loses control over interest rates, the dollar is heading toward its ultimate devaluation. 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